Tag: aphria

Downturns in the marijuana industry is good news for investors.

Also included at the bottom are my list of predictions for the next weeks prices

Often people say, “what goes up must come down”. This is most likely the case with all of the stocks in the cannabis sector. In the last few months, big names such as CRON, ACB, TLRY, CGC, NBEV, and GTEC have all risen from positive news based on the sector. However this alone has led most investors to expect some sort of bubble crash recession to result, although many feel this (3/21/19) downturn will lead to even more stock growth.

Mainstream news has been filled with articles claiming that the entire sector had been over valued for weeks. With Cronos Group’s earnings report report coming at 8:30AM on March 26th, investors are awaiting a signal to see if more selling is to come or not. Currently however as of 1:00PM March 21st, the sector is in full sell off mode due to market downturn and volatility. I believe the sector is facing market risk as well as sector risk during this current downturn and will possibly rebound with the market if the news reports about the sector say anything positive. Sector risk appears to be the main issue at the moment however, everyday another un-related company disappointing its investors ends up affecting other companies un-related to that news.

My current predictions for the week of March 25th-29th are as follows:

MJ – Low of 34

CRON – Low of 17.50

ACB – Low of 8.00

CGC – Low of 43.50

The prices being driven down is a positive factor as it will allow investors to begin the process of buying shares at a price they feel comfortable with. If an event were to occur that makes the stocks depreciate more than expected, it would lead to a great buying opportunity for anyone who is attempting to go long on this sector. Short term downsides will only help in the future, as they will allow investors such as myself to get better cost basis’s on their long portfolio’s.

The Active Amount Of Marijuana Users Is Going To Double In Ten Years.

This Original Article is only aiming to be an Informational Document.

I would like to start this post by stating, that I do not condone the use of marijuana; I only condone the purchase of marijuana stocks. The first article I would like to point to is the Nation Institute of Drug Abuse Research on marijuana use in the United States which was last updated on June, 2018. They stated that “In 2016, 9.4 percent of 8th graders reported marijuana use in the past year and 5.4 percent in the past month (current use)”. Yes you read that correctly; 8th graders. Another side note would be the fact that they were 8th graders, and how that may increase the likelihood that some of them were not truthful with their responses (an assumption that I’m sure the majority of my readers will agree with).

Next I would like to point to this graph produced by government research, that indicates the use of marijuana by age group in the United States, and also an increased amount of marijuana usage among the age group of 18-25.

Information taken from the Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Office of Applied Studies. State Estimates of Substance Use from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health

The main likelihood I would like to point to is that if these trends are to continue; it means that everyone currently aged 8-18, will most likely represent somewhere around 20% of marijuana usage in the United States. Another site called Statista.com posted statistics that the largest group of marijuana consumers would in fact be 18-29 year olds (18% of consumers in the United States).

This all together points to the likelihood that the amount of marijuana consumption in the United States may almost double by the time 10 years has gone by. Using the data that 18-29 year olds represent 18% of the population that are already active users, one could assume that those aged 8-18 currently may eventually represent a very similar statistic. The chances of consumption doubling are dependent on two other factors however. The factor that people aged 18-29 would have to continue to use marijuana at the same frequency, and the fact that people aged 8-18 would need to adopt marijuana use at the same frequency that people have been in the past. Considering my point earlier about how 9.4% of 8th graders reported using marijuana in the last year, I would personally say this is already currently in effect.

The past was filled with marijuana stigma, and the idea of legally operating a business devoted to producing it was a fairy tale. Now that the current atmosphere and legal climate of marijuana are changing; and the worlds governments are putting forth effort to begin legalization. It is only natural to assume that the amount of kids aged 8-18 adopting a marijuana habit by the time they’re 18 is not going to drop. But will only remain consistent or rise. I have no knowledge of weather anyone has used this factor in their future forecast for future legal United States marijuana sales going forth; my claim however is that this should be one large factor of forecasting future sales of the market sector, and for ETF’s such as MJ.

The hard facts point to marijuana use being more prevalent in younger members of the United States. During the next few years the youth will continually grow up to represent more of the adult population in the United States, and subsequently increase the amount of adults in America actively purchasing marijuana. The Canadian marijuana companies that are currently setting up operations will not face headwinds while searching for consumers to buy their products. These companies in fact will have a population in which every year another bracket of citizens turns 21 and are therefore able to purchase marijuana legally in stores. This is of course implying a completely hypothetical situation in which 2-4 years have gone by and these companies (TLRY, CRON, ACB, CGC) have legally entered the United States for the sale of products, as a result of new regulations going into effect.